Time Sensitive
Nyquist • Livi Makenzie • (by Macho Uno)
Placed; $23,282.
Family Notes
Female Family Notes (Family 21-a)
Breeder: WinStar Farm, LLC
Family 21-a is one of the most reliable modern American female families, defined by graded-stakes depth, durability, and repeatable production rather than reliance on a single elite outlier. The line has remained commercially and competitively relevant across multiple generations and surfaces.
Recent top-level validation has strengthened the page further. Since cataloging, Tawny Port has finished second in the Canadian International Stakes (G1) and competed in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1), confirming that this family continues to produce horses capable of performing at the highest international level.
Stakes Winners in the Family (with sires)
- Tawny Port (by Pioneerof the Nile) : G2 winner; G1-placed (2nd Canadian International G1); Breeders’ Cup Turf G1 starter
- Additional stakes performers appear throughout the family, reinforcing depth rather than a single-generation spike
Overall Takeaway
Family 21-a transmits class, soundness, and staying power. It consistently responds best to modern dirt and dirt-speed influences that preserve efficiency while allowing the female family to control outcome. This is a foundation-level family that supports disciplined commercial breeding rather than speculative protection matings.
Nick Analysis
WerkHorse
2026 WerkHorse Summary
This is an elite WerkHorse profile with exceptional depth at the top of the modern dirt sire population. Multiple A+++ and A++ outcomes appear across a wide fee range, indicating structural compatibility rather than trend dependence.
Big Picture Takeaways
- A+++ compatibility with Curlin, Good Magic, Bolt d’Oro, and Violence
- Broad A++ depth across modern dirt-speed and Classic sire lines
- Signal strength holds independent of stud fee, supporting economic discipline
Interpretation
The data confirms that Time Sensitive is not niche-dependent. She consistently accepts dirt-class and dirt-speed influences, particularly those that add athletic efficiency rather than additional size.
TrueNicks
Across multiple hypothetical matings, the strongest TrueNicks signal appears when this mare is paired with fast, efficient dirt sires rather than Classic stamina-heavy profiles.
Elite and Preferred Signals
- Bolt d’Oro-line and Violence-line matings produce A++ ratings with strong stakes-winner rates
- Candy Ride / Gun Runner–aligned speed influences outperform population averages
Underperforming Signals
- Into Mischief–line speed stacking underperforms relative to expectation
- Uncle Mo on top of Uncle Mo introduces excessive inbreeding pressure and is not recommended
Overall Takeaway
TrueNicks confirms that this pedigree performs best when paired with modern dirt-speed sires that tighten frame and improve efficiency, rather than duplicating stamina or inbreeding speed.
Stallion Match
StallionMatch returns a perfect compatibility score (20/20) with multiple elite dirt sire lines.
Confirmed High-Confidence Matches
- Violence
- Good Magic
- Not This Time
- Gun Runner
- Curlin
- Munnings
- Constitution
Journal Takeaway
This level of broad, repeatable compatibility reinforces Time Sensitive as a flexible, leverage-ready broodmare whose outcomes are driven by disciplined sire selection rather than narrow nick dependency.
AI Review
Time Sensitive is a Nyquist mare from Female Family 21-a, a line defined by durability, graded-stakes depth, and repeatable production rather than reliance on a single outlier. Recent top-level validation through Tawny Port:now second in the Canadian International (G1) and a starter in the Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1):confirms that this family remains fully functional at the highest level and capable of producing horses that carry class over distance and time.
From an economic standpoint, this mare supports a legitimate commercial stud-fee, but the leverage point is narrower than the pedigree alone might suggest. When realistic costs are applied:including approximately $20,000 per year in mare care, $10,000–$12,000 in foaling and routine veterinary expenses, and standard sales preparation:an all-in cost of roughly $60,000 to sell as a weanling and $80,000 to sell as a yearling is a defensible baseline. That framing places the optimal stud-fee range squarely at $20,000–$35,000, where average market outcomes still clear costs without relying on exceptional individuals.
Within that band, the data separates clearly. WerkHorse grades cluster at A++ and A+++, and TrueNicks reinforces that this mare performs best when paired with modern dirt sires that add athletic compression and efficiency, rather than additional size or scope. This is particularly relevant given Time Sensitive’s own physical, as further frame expansion would increase risk without improving marketability.
At the top of the range, Forte emerges as the strongest Medaglia d’Oro–line option. With a $35,000 stud fee, recent weanling averages in the mid-$160,000s translate:after standard sales expenses:into net proceeds of roughly $150,000, leaving a margin of more than $80,000 over realistic production costs. That equates to a cash multiple just over 2.2×, achieved without assuming a top-end physical. For this mare, Forte represents a rare combination of elite nicking support and early commercial liquidity.
At a lower entry point, Taiba provides one of the cleanest risk-adjusted profiles available. At a $25,000 fee, Taiba’s recent weanling averages in the low- to mid-$140,000s still net approximately $130,000, yielding margins in the $70,000+ range and a similar ~2.2× cash return. Importantly, Taiba achieves that result while adding speed and athletic balance to a tall mare, rather than additional length.
Jackie’s Warrior stands out as the most reliable speed-based commercial stabilizer. At the same $25,000 fee, his weanling averages around $175,000 and yearling averages north of $220,000 demonstrate genuine flexibility. Even after carrying a foal through a yearling program with total costs approaching $80,000, Jackie’s Warrior still produces average net proceeds exceeding $200,000, leaving margins of roughly $120,000 and a 2.6× cash multiple. That dual-lane viability is rare and meaningful.
Secondary options such as Up to the Mark and Cogburn remain viable but introduce more volatility. Up to the Mark’s weanling averages near $180,000 produce eye-catching margins on paper:approaching $100,000 over cost:but those figures are supported by a smaller sold sample, increasing downside risk if market sentiment softens. Cogburn, meanwhile, clears costs reliably with averages in the mid-$130,000s, but outcomes are more individual-dependent and less liquid at the top end.
Taken together, the numbers reinforce a consistent conclusion. Time Sensitive does not need fee escalation or pedigree “protection” to succeed. Her family already supplies class, stamina, and durability. When realistic production costs and net sale prices are accounted for, the $20,000–$35,000 band produces repeatable positive outcomes, with Forte, Taiba, and Jackie’s Warrior offering the strongest blend of pedigree alignment, physical compatibility, and risk-adjusted ROI. These options clear true all-in costs in average scenarios, not just best-case ones, which is exactly where this mare is best leveraged.
Stallion Shortlist
- Forte : Forte sits at the top of the list as the most complete blend of pedigree signal, physical fit, and commercial ROI. He delivers Medaglia d’Oro–line class without adding unnecessary size, carries A+++ WerkHorse compatibility, and has already demonstrated the ability to clear true all-in production costs at a $35,000 fee. Forte offers the highest ceiling in the group while remaining economically rational for this mare.
- Taiba : Taiba represents the most efficient risk-adjusted option in the $25,000 tier. His Gun Runner–aligned speed and athletic balance suit a tall Nyquist mare particularly well, and his early sales results consistently support a 2×+ return without relying on elite individuals. Taiba combines physical correction with repeatable commercial outcomes.
- Jackie’s Warrior : Jackie’s Warrior earns a short-list position as the most reliable dirt-speed commercial stabilizer. He is one of the few sires in this range to demonstrate strong results at both the weanling and yearling levels, preserving strategic flexibility. His ability to tighten frame and generate immediate buyer recognition makes him a high-confidence option.
- Up to the Mark : Up to the Mark remains on the list as the strongest Not This Time–line expression for this pedigree. He offers stamina and efficiency without size creep and has posted excellent average sale results. While sample size introduces more volatility than the top options, the upside remains meaningful if the individual cooperates.
- Cogburn : Cogburn rounds out the short list as a value-speed alternative. He reliably clears costs at the $25,000 level and provides additional dirt-speed leverage without inbreeding pressure. Outcomes are more individual-dependent, but the economic downside is controlled.
Decision Rationale
Final Decision: Jackie’s Warrior
Jackie’s Warrior is selected as the final mating choice for Time Sensitive because he offers the strongest convergence of physical correction, commercial liquidity, and risk-adjusted return within the targeted $20,000–$35,000 stud-fee range.
Physically, this mare is tall and does not benefit from additional scope. Jackie’s Warrior reliably adds muscle density, balance, and athletic compression, tightening frame without sacrificing power. Pedigree tools reinforce the fit, with strong WerkHorse, TrueNicks, and StallionMatch alignment favoring fast, efficient dirt sires for this family.
Economically, Jackie’s Warrior is one of the few sires in this band to demonstrate consistent success at both the weanling and yearling levels. Average weanling prices in the mid-$170,000 range and yearling averages north of $220,000 comfortably clear true all-in production costs, even when carrying to a yearling program. These outcomes produce margins in excess of cost in average scenarios, not just top-end cases.
Taken together, Jackie’s Warrior represents the lowest-volatility, highest-confidence option for Time Sensitive. He tightens the mare physically, maintains buyer recognition, avoids unnecessary inbreeding pressure, and delivers repeatable commercial outcomes without fee escalation. For this mare and this family, he is the most disciplined and defensible final selection.